Value Dining Gains Traction in 2026 Restaurant Outlook

Consumer Edge has published its 2026 Restaurant Outlook, highlighting that U.S. restaurant spending remained stable through 2025. The report suggests that consumers are increasingly prioritizing value and reliability in their dining choices, with brands like Chili's, Texas Roadhouse, and Raising Cane's gaining market share by offering consistent experiences at fair prices.

The report identifies several key trends in the restaurant industry. One significant finding is the shift in consumer spending habits, with a focus on value driving changes in market dynamics. Consumers across income levels are becoming more deliberate in their dining choices, and grocery spending is increasing across all income groups. This has resulted in a polarized market, with consumers either opting for cost savings or seeking enhanced dining experiences.

Casual dining establishments, such as Chili's, Texas Roadhouse, and Olive Garden, experienced steady growth in the third quarter of 2025. Middle-income consumers favored these affordable sit-down meal options. Red Lobster also saw a rebound during this period, attributed to new value combos and a simplified menu. The report suggests that 2026 could see casual dining leaders build on this momentum by offering quality meals and reliable service at reasonable prices.

The chicken restaurant segment has shown significant growth since 2019-2020, expanding by 50%. Raising Cane's has nearly doubled its market share to 11%, surpassing competitors like Popeyes and KFC, while Chick-fil-A continues to lead with approximately 50% of the category's total spending. The report anticipates continued strength in this segment, supported by consistent value, operational efficiency, and broad appeal across income levels.

In contrast, some fast-casual brands, such as Chipotle and Panera, experienced slower growth in the third quarter of 2025 due to higher prices affecting consumer demand. However, Panda Express gained traction through menu innovation and digital engagement. This mixed performance highlights a trend where consumers reward brands that balance novelty with clear value, a pattern expected to influence spending in the coming year.

Regional brands also contributed to growth, with Freebirds World Burrito and Biscuitville leading year-over-year increase in the Southern U.S. during the third quarter of 2025. In the Northeast, Springbone Kitchen and Blank Street Coffee thrived by offering healthy, convenient options. These regional players demonstrate how local identity and community connection are becoming influential factors in dining choices, alongside price and convenience.

Consumer Edge's analysis covers over 600 restaurant brands across various categories, including casual dining, family dining, fast casual, fine dining, quick service, and upscale casual. The report provides insights into wallet share by income, market share across different transaction sizes, customer retention and loyalty trends, and demographic exposure by income and age. These insights offer a comprehensive view of how economic and generational factors are shaping consumer dining behavior.

The full 2026 Restaurant Outlook report is available for download on Consumer Edge's website.