Restaurant Brands International Inc. Provides Five-Year Growth Outlook

Outlook delivers 40,000 restaurants, $60B in system-wide sales and $3.2B in Adjusted Operating Income by 2028

Feb 19, 2024 - 09:56
Feb 19, 2024 - 09:56

Outlook delivers 40,000 restaurants, $60B in system-wide sales and $3.2B in Adjusted Operating Income by 2028
Average annual 3%+ comparable sales and 5%+ net restaurant growth to drive 8%+ system-wide sales growth
Efficient flow through expected to result in average annual Adjusted Operating Income growth of 8%+
Efficient capital allocation with a focus on high return business investments and consistent dividend growth

Restaurant Brands International Inc.  (TSX: QSR) (NYSE: QSR) (TSX: QSP) Chief Executive Officer, Josh Kobza, and Executive Chairman, Patrick Doyle, today shared their confidence in the long-term global growth outlook for Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs.

Mr. Kobza provided guidance for investors that the company expects to achieve a minimum of 40,000 restaurants, $60B in system-wide sales and $3.2B in Adjusted Operating Income by 2028 by delivering average annual results over the next five years of 3% plus comparable sales, 5% plus net restaurant growth and 8% plus system-wide sales growth translating to at least 8% Adjusted Operating Income growth.

"We're proud of the work our franchisees and their teams are doing to deliver quality food, excellent service and convenience to guests," said Josh Kobza, CEO. "Our four iconic brands have strong restaurant fundamentals and clear runways for growth. Our long-term investment horizon should result in compelling business performance and drive at least low double digit annual total shareholder returns over the next 5 years."  

"When you add up the sum of the parts of our company, we have a pretty remarkable combination of growth drivers," said Patrick Doyle, Executive Chairman. "The outlook we are sharing for growth is really the lowest average performance that we expect over the next five-years, with real upside potential from there."

Mr. Kobza summarized the strong fundamentals and growth drivers for each of the Company's five business segments and provided an update on the Company's capital allocation priorities.


Tim Hortons has a strong foundation, particularly in Canada, with market share of 70%+ in hot brewed coffee, 65%+ in baked goods and 60%+ in breakfast sandwiches and wraps in 2023. Tim Hortons restaurants have a history of strong operations, driven by dedicated restaurant owners who operate roughly 4 restaurants on average.

Looking ahead to 2028, Tim Hortons will focus on growing the PM daypart beyond its 9% market share for 2023 through wraps, bowls, savory pastries, snacking and new product innovation.  Tim Hortons is also planning significant growth in cold beverages from its 25% market share for 2023, driven initially by cold brew, real fruit quenchers, specialty beverages and innovation around its iconic Iced Capp.  Attracting more guests to use the brand's #1 food and beverage app in Canada will contribute meaningfully to growth, given digital guests spent 5 times more than non-digital guests on average in 2023.

Tim Hortons US business is expected to be the largest contributor of net restaurant growth in its home markets, with an aspiration to reach 1,000 restaurants by 2028.


International growth will be driven by our strong network of well-capitalized master franchisee partners, with proven restaurant experience and commitment to growing the Company's brands in over 120 markets and territories.

Despite its successful historical growth and substantial global footprint, with each of its four brands in a different stage of development, the business still has a substantial opportunity for new country expansion and increasing penetration of strong and established existing markets around the world.  

The Company sees a path towards opening at least 7,000 new restaurants in international markets over the 5-year outlook period.


The foundational strength of Burger King's brand is the Whopper, which is frequently cited as the most loved burger in the big burger QSR segment, and clear differentiation through flame grilling and customization of our guests' orders.

The Company has made a substantial financial commitment to co-invest with franchisees to accelerate modern image in the U.S. and shift the franchise system towards smaller operators who live close to their restaurants. This includes the pending acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group and announced plan to fully modernize and then refranchise the vast majority of its portfolio of approximately 1,000 restaurants, which we expect to be completed within 5 to 7 years.

Looking ahead to 2028, major growth drivers in the business include accelerating to get 85% to 90% of the system to modern image, driving incremental sales through remodels and effective marketing, executing the Carrols reimaging and refranchising plan, and improving guest experience through training and operational excellence at the restaurant.


Popeyes, the number two player in chicken quick service restaurants, has a strong history as a taste leader rooted in the brand's authentic Louisiana heritage and high-quality menu, including 12-hour marination of our chicken which is then freshly battered, breaded and fried in the restaurant every day.

Looking ahead to 2028, the brand will continue daypart and occasion expansion of its menu, in line with recent examples of the Chicken Sandwich and Wings and focus on attracting more profitable digital guests and increasing its digital mix of sales. The brand will accelerate its emphasis on improving restaurant operations through its Easy to Run kitchens. Popeyes expects to grow its U.S. and Canada restaurant base with top restaurant operators from nearly 3,400 in 2023 to over 4,200 restaurants by 2028.


Firehouse Subs is consistently named by consumers as #1 in food quality, #1 in food taste and flavor, and #1 brand that supports local, community activities through our Firehouse Foundation.

Looking ahead to 2028, Firehouse Subs is expected to contribute to our broader outlook by rapidly scaling its digital channels to 100% of sales over the next few years, improving speed of service through equipment innovation, and accelerating net restaurant growth in attractive and under-penetrated markets across the U.S. and Canada with a path to ramp its pace of development to 300 net new annual units over the next few years, resulting in 800 new units by 2028.


The Company reiterated its commitment to a balanced capital allocation framework throughout the outlook period, including continuing to invest behind high-return growth opportunities across its brands, targeting a 50-60% long-term dividend payout ratio and consistently growing its dividend with earnings, maintaining net total leverage between 3x-5x, repurchasing shares at attractive valuations over time, and preserving balance sheet flexibility for potential strategic opportunities.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. is one of the world's largest quick service restaurant companies with over $40 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 30,000 restaurants in more than 100 countries.